TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,232

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,232 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x396d…46bebacked Yes36c3,014$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc686…d184backed Yes36c3,002$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d04…c352backed Yes36c3,002$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdc2…2046backed No64c1,511$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…6674backed No64c1,504$963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xafb4…fc7fbacked No64c1,503$962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4af6…17e4backed No64c1,502$961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d80…6e0dbacked No64c1,500$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5401100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6889…8ab9backed No64c1,498$959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e7f…44d4backed No60c1,466$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.324966.7%166 W · 83 L+15.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes41c791.77$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.4532157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes31c685.5$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.541,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf516…1ea1backed Yes2c685.08$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.465135.3%18 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22fe…20c6backed No65c493.98$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.075350.9%27 W · 26 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes33c379.2$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.0317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes23c355.48$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.7256424.5%138 W · 426 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes37c249$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.91,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes32c203.24$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4525029.2%73 W · 177 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes6c202.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6631319.2%60 W · 253 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad62…2aa9backed Yes52c198.2$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.6316532.7%54 W · 111 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f6…628cbacked No75c186.81$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.286755.2%37 W · 30 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-8.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes15c183$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7427648.6%134 W · 142 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed No68c174.24$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2438840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No65c164.87$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4391967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No68c146.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2954143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfced…03d9backed Yes24c140.42$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3710141.6%42 W · 59 L+7.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+82%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No70c128.29$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.263757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes34c116.5$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.111,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5de8…f004backed No57c116.46$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6815749.7%78 W · 79 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes24c112.5$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f48…7825backed No68c103.09$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4910614.2%15 W · 91 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf57d…f322backed Yes36c102.03$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6225519.2%49 W · 206 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2823633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5833058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a61…970ebacked Yes32c99.04$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.58425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid+3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes18c98.59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1834618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes37c93.47$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.783,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2967…4ae7backed Yes35c89.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.525725.7%66 W · 191 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes20c87.1$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.291,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No56c83.78$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes38c82.44$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x353e…9db2backed No62c79.8$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.023132.3%10 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-54.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2e7…d075backed No65c76.02$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.572437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe584…85d4backed No68c74.98$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.148256.1%46 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes49c73.41$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9725549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No41c72.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8359742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x919d…f1b1backed No64c65.29$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5310051%51 W · 49 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+29.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes30c63.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.827,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes38c61$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0835843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No70c59.6$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1259440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2205…8089backed No68c51.47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4729056.2%163 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked Yes36c50.46$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.931,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb058…852cbacked No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122060%12 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83fe…23d9backed No68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.232760.6%198 W · 129 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1438…6d40backed Yes37c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.422420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick27cpaid+173.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.526253.4%140 W · 122 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes29c47.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9861659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes35c45.93$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.963,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe211…c34fbacked Yes43c45.15$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.374959.2%29 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5830…f928backed Yes33c42$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.861833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-30.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked No67c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2531567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fde…b480backed Yes27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.84035%14 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+31.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc33…9636backed No62c39.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.212540%50 W · 75 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c0…5443backed Yes38c39.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1918740.6%76 W · 111 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe34…8ee7backed No69c37.48$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6816355.2%90 W · 73 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b4e…d839backed Yes32c37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9222728.6%65 W · 162 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No68c36.9$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.929558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d2b…815abacked Yes33c35.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8310264.7%66 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes38c35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3581029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c00…1c78backed Yes33c34.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5315330.7%47 W · 106 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No65c32$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.256265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No64c30.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0970770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No53c26.54$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.511,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeed2…ad97backed No67c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.224047.5%19 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2cc0…b5f2backed No67c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3513360.9%81 W · 52 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x355d…902dbacked No66c24.98$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.58580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+47.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b89…03ffbacked No65c22.6$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.811163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcce…65afbacked No78c21.95$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8927771.5%198 W · 79 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No54c21.4$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8299962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40f6…ec7abacked No55c20.27$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8328…935fbacked No66c19.69$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.692100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea89…26abbacked No77c16.3$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.752369.6%16 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No65c16.09$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.798571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.