Champions League · resolved market
Will Atalanta beat Stuttgart?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a6de22406827e608e326c42975d77d3949272b45d23dfe46a4ffbf74bbcab5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yes | 39c | 7,687$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,687.17 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 61c | 5,461$3,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,332.8 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd7…547dbacked Yes | 75c | 1,339$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.19 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x519f…2af7backed Yes | 37c | 1,319$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 33c | 871.45$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.28 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 63c | 704.41$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.78 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed No | 25c | 694.33$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.33 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3456…3f87backed Yes | 39c | 573.33$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked No | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed No | 62c | 333.07$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.67 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 64c | 260$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.28 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…a171backed No | 31c | 162.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…2d34backed Yes | 37c | 135.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23a6…9347backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 22cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 35c | 125.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.22 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -10.3wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…ef44backed Yes | 37c | 120.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.71 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3a…1ab8backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed No | 62c | 95.24$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.05 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd086…35f0backed Yes | 38c | 95.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aef…b04fbacked Yes | 37c | 88.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…3049backed Yes | 37c | 76.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5342…0f95backed Yes | 38c | 74.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d63…aa21backed Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 65c | 62.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…e097backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50a…b40bbacked Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b3…5e9fbacked No | 63c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…7f08backed No | 61c | 20.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc5…9321backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atalanta beat Stuttgart?this page
- Will Stuttgart beat Atalanta?No won
- Will the match between VfB Stuttgart and Atalanta end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.