Ligue 1 · resolved market
Racing Club de Lens vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a8199eb538c5993008ec6e2be2408ce1ce32ceddd4e959a2a7bd8df27dae3d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 1,748$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.54 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 36c | 1,500$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 67c | 824.2$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 19c | 718.58$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.04 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x751b…878cbacked Under | 80c | 678.6$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 35c | 270.88$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.34 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 33c | 250$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd5…6428backed Under | 73c | 246.58$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Under | 66c | 199.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 34c | 194.12$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 38c | 191.31$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe4…8f49backed Under | 61c | 179.35$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.94 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Over | 37c | 173$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Over | 37c | 135$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…b4f1backed Under | 64c | 109.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 62c | 97.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…f0d7backed Under | 63c | 68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…644bbacked Under | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +39%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Under | 68c | 58.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99df…b59abacked Over | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…1bdfbacked Under | 63c | 47.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Over | 38c | 47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed Under | 63c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Under | 62c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Under | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd253…14d9backed Under | 63c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a88…832dbacked Under | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…c958backed Under | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed Under | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed Under | 63c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…af84backed Under | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Under | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…bdecbacked Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…142bbacked Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa597…7e14backed Under | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 76cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Racing Club de Lens vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 3.5this page
- Racing Club de Lens vs. Le Havre AC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.