Ligue 1 · resolved market
Racing Club de Lens vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b6444c71b859fda76b5e1716d779c966af2a9686a96e17f43ea2edf61535184
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe667…898fbacked Over | 0c | 22,407$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked Over | 0c | 6,501$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 24c | 5,197$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,968.18 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 5,096$2,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,608.24 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 3,138$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,640.13 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Over | 48c | 3,117$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Under | 1c | 2,768$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,740.32 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +869.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 80c | 2,448$1,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,958.59 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 78c | 1,280$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.39 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 71c | 1,127$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 29c | 897.19$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.67 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0801…35cbbacked Over | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 65c | 499.99$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 18c | 398.47$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.75 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 20c | 392.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.1 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 80c | 375$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Over | 69c | 362.32$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb8…85b9backed Under | 64c | 356.82$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 18c | 324.32$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.94 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 51c | 314.93$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.21 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 51c | 312.32$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 309.14$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.57 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.7wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…132abacked Over | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 30c | 254$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25bb…b369backed Over | 71c | 243.73$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 45c | 235.56$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 7c | 234.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.21 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d0…e72ebacked Over | 79c | 193.49$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…2dd6backed Over | 30c | 169.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 66c | 161$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 37c | 148.36$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 20c | 137$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.6 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf24b…d4cebacked Under | 47c | 127.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.54 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 43c | 121.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2564…08c2backed Over | 74c | 118.03$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Under | 18c | 105$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Under | 59c | 101.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…c751backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54fe…5850backed Over | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…1b85backed Over | 58c | 95.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Under | 28c | 90.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +143.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Over | 42c | 82.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 37c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 58c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…1c72backed Over | 57c | 71.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -50%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb885…e677backed Under | 30c | 71.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed Under | 28c | 70.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 20c | 68.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 44c | 67.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 40c | 65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x184e…b307backed Under | 39c | 63.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…55c5backed Under | 50c | 60.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 53c | 59.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 58c | 58.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…9ea1backed Over | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…b066backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Over | 32c | 49.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Under | 23c | 47.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 65c | 38.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…0e75backed Over | 53c | 37.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 47cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 78c | 37.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.5wins | -0.39per pick | 73cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 63c | 36.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 43c | 34.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Over | 79c | 32.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 57 | 78.9%45 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked Over | 45c | 32.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0592…49aabacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdc…cdadbacked Over | 72c | 29.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…9762backed Under | 42c | 27.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 65c | 26.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…17e3backed Over | 52c | 25.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f6…4288backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -4.4wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x74e2…89a5backed Over | 72c | 24.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 67c | 24.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d42…4f02backed Over | 58c | 20.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd16…07bbbacked Over | 79c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df3…9d6bbacked Over | 54c | 18.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 60c | 16.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 67c | 15.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa597…7e14backed Over | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 76cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…41f2backed Over | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 67cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Racing Club de Lens vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 1.5this page
- Racing Club de Lens vs. Le Havre AC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.