NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a88ae24cd4196cfda4bd6591167a96b8dba33bcf315e18694a6a88311c71ddd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Warriors, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Suns | 58c | 2,707$1,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.95 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 42c | 1,550$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.62 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors | 48c | 1,186$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.16 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Suns | 47c | 1,100$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 53c | 1,021$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.06 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Warriors | 47c | 961.7$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Suns | 52c | 880$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.4 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors | 42c | 770$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.4 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…85a1backed Suns | 58c | 210$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Suns | 57c | 199.55$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.9 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Warriors | 53c | 68.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Suns | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Suns | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Suns | 56c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d96…a9d9backed Warriors | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Suns | 57c | 31.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Suns | 53c | 22.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)this page
- Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Suns won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Suns won
- Warriors vs. SunsSuns won
- Warriors vs. Suns: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 228.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 229.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 231.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.