NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c79cc12da428d71822a3ee6891efd9e3c4cb52449d2f0b075534b3f7a08eabf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x869b…c625backed Under | 51c | 59,996$30,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,398.05 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 30,800$15,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,345.23 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Over | 49c | 18,906$9,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,263.95 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Over | 49c | 9,102$4,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,460 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 47c | 4,403$2,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,333.56 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Over | 55c | 4,061$2,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,222 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 47c | 2,897$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,527.08 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea27…19c6backed Over | 53c | 2,582$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.6 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Under | 48c | 1,897$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.5 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 1,325$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.26 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 49c | 982.39$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.37 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Over | 49c | 842.86$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 47c | 685.11$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.11 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff63…5aa1backed Under | 47c | 386.53$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.86 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…121dbacked Under | 46c | 347.83$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.83 | 315 | 51.7%163 W · 152 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 51c | 228.5$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.96 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Over | 55c | 220$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.95 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf531…b062backed Over | 53c | 219.98$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.59 | 548 | 38%208 W · 340 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Under | 47c | 214.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.89 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 45c | 206$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.25 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 50c | 204.77$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.38 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a28…c2e1backed Over | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Over | 54c | 149.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…fe30backed Over | 54c | 144.68$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.15 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 184 | 53.3%98 W · 86 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…daddbacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…fcf3backed Over | 55c | 92.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 124 | 54%67 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…ed59backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a6…af86backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1209…fa75backed Over | 52c | 89.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…ff79backed Over | 54c | 73.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc69…78b3backed Over | 55c | 60.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b7…c02cbacked Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5748…7b81backed Over | 55c | 41.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Over | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc20d…b58bbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdb…7a7abacked Under | 46c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…3e63backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 229.5this page
- Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Suns won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Suns won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Suns won
- Warriors vs. SunsSuns won
- Warriors vs. Suns: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 228.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 231.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.