NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x693462fbf96d784b1097e7a14e4330993c3e8d056bbd01901cdcd3b7be855d9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Warriors, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Suns | 53c | 44,444$23,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,666.44 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Warriors | 47c | 23,392$10,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,994.01 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Warriors | 46c | 14,967$6,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,884.82 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed Suns | 55c | 5,856$3,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,636.85 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 46c | 4,721$2,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,163.59 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors | 46c | 3,507$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,619.99 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 46c | 3,061$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,416.48 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Warriors | 46c | 2,799$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287.75 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Suns | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad01…ac86backed Suns | 52c | 1,385$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd65d…a9e6backed Warriors | 48c | 1,349$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.4 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Suns | 54c | 798.15$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.14 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Warriors | 46c | 760.87$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Suns | 54c | 600$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Suns | 48c | 385$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.12 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Warriors | 48c | 329.22$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.43 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Warriors | 46c | 253.31$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.52 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Warriors | 46c | 245.91$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Suns | 54c | 235$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.45 | 236 | 48.7%115 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8476…dc8dbacked Warriors | 46c | 210.2$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.69 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Suns | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Suns | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 289 | 29.4%85 W · 204 L | -13.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c62…01a3backed Suns | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Warriors | 51c | 153.28$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.29 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Warriors | 46c | 142$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.32 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Warriors | 47c | 124.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Suns | 52c | 106.25$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 315 | 38.1%120 W · 195 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d03…2717backed Warriors | 48c | 106.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Warriors | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Warriors | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Warriors | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 184 | 53.3%98 W · 86 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Warriors | 55c | 93.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Suns | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Warriors | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Warriors | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -21.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed Warriors | 48c | 26.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…f205backed Warriors | 46c | 25.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 420 | 0.7%3 W · 417 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…ea96backed Warriors | 54c | 20.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Suns won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Suns won
- Warriors vs. SunsSuns won
- Warriors vs. Suns: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 228.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 229.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 231.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.