NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf81cf51512c7d227e9a713e3d1fcf715044c3fecd4bbec7fe4212b54ebaf6937
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Warriors, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $944,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $945,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $944,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2e7…be51backed Warriors | 53c | 872,979$463,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463,000 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Suns | 47c | 500,000$235,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265,000 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Suns | 47c | 245,050$115,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129,876.69 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Suns | 50c | 44,444$22,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,444.21 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Suns | 47c | 37,919$17,921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,997.74 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Suns | 46c | 29,347$13,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,848.06 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Suns | 47c | 28,766$13,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,245.95 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Warriors | 51c | 19,145$9,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,764.19 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x869b…c625backed Warriors | 50c | 12,070$6,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,034.99 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Suns | 46c | 8,879$4,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,794.66 | 184 | 53.3%98 W · 86 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Suns | 48c | 7,547$3,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,924.44 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Suns | 49c | 6,762$3,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,429.29 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed7…e617backed Warriors | 50c | 3,060$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Suns | 48c | 2,863$1,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,496.94 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Warriors | 50c | 2,167$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.5 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked Warriors | 50c | 2,040$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 240 | 48.3%116 W · 124 L | -13.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Warriors | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Suns | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.99 | 433 | 48.5%210 W · 223 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Warriors | 51c | 1,955$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.67 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Warriors | 51c | 1,919$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.58 | 623 | 51.4%320 W · 303 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 53c | 1,569$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.05 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors | 50c | 1,487$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.89 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Suns | 45c | 1,222$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.1 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x273c…7a42backed Suns | 47c | 1,194$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.67 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Suns | 47c | 1,191$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.23 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Warriors | 50c | 997.26$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.63 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49bd…bbedbacked Suns | 49c | 990$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Suns | 48c | 945.34$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.4 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Suns | 49c | 813.4$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.48 | 219 | 37%81 W · 138 L | -15.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Suns | 45c | 700$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Suns | 60c | 699$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.6 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Suns | 47c | 689.75$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.56 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Suns | 48c | 618.18$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.45 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Warriors | 52c | 612$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.78 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Warriors | 52c | 590.38$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307 | 255 | 54.1%138 W · 117 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Suns | 49c | 448.98$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.98 | 217 | 53%115 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1993…ba07backed Warriors | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Suns | 45c | 327.33$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.03 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb968…db31backed Warriors | 51c | 310$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…d1dabacked Warriors | 51c | 280$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Warriors | 52c | 232.36$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.38 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b9…7b8dbacked Suns | 49c | 208.16$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Suns | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Suns | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea4…e429backed Suns | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Suns | 51c | 196.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.07 | 189 | 54.5%103 W · 86 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aed…eb43backed Warriors | 54c | 137.04$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…4dafbacked Suns | 50c | 114$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…ea96backed Warriors | 55c | 109.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Warriors | 55c | 101.82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcc…4324backed Suns | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Warriors | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Warriors | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 522 | 42.7%223 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Suns | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Warriors | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…07cdbacked Warriors | 51c | 98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Warriors | 52c | 97.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Suns | 47c | 92.84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.21 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0e…b74abacked Suns | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed Warriors | 52c | 78.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Warriors | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Warriors | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Suns | 46c | 63.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Warriors | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Warriors | 51c | 44.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Warriors | 53c | 41.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe44a…c4f8backed Warriors | 52c | 40.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a15…ee3abacked Warriors | 53c | 36.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Warriors | 65c | 24.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 63cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Warriors | 52c | 24.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked Suns | 51c | 21.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e77…ec4ebacked Warriors | 52c | 19.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa973…f639backed Warriors | 52c | 19.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Suns won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Suns won
- Warriors vs. SunsSuns won
- Warriors vs. Suns: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 228.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 229.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 231.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.