NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19eb2c7c8cb6ca5eaac7f1e98acd55daaf4141aaff53510f40d68b9b38331b16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Under | 48c | 18,475$8,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,606.84 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 6,448$3,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,364.31 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac75…1319backed Over | 55c | 5,600$3,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,080 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…73bcbacked Over | 57c | 4,742$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Under | 45c | 2,711$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,490.98 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b6…8a74backed Over | 59c | 2,542$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…819ebacked Over | 58c | 2,332$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,352.56 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 52c | 1,925$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.49 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Under | 47c | 1,505$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.1 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ba…d291backed Over | 51c | 985$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked Under | 45c | 970$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.5 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 51c | 906$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.06 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Under | 49c | 900$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459 | 156 | 53.8%84 W · 72 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Under | 45c | 888.12$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.47 | 241 | 47.3%114 W · 127 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Under | 45c | 535.56$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.56 | 168 | 49.4%83 W · 85 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 52c | 404$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.08 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 395$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.4 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ea…22ecbacked Under | 50c | 383$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.47 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c3…2149backed Under | 45c | 271.18$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Over | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Under | 44c | 227.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.67 | 189 | 54.5%103 W · 86 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 45c | 192.41$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.82 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aef…dc0fbacked Over | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea1c…73e6backed Over | 53c | 140$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78e5…de63backed Over | 54c | 129$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…1943backed Over | 58c | 120.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Under | 43c | 110$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa14…f533backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a20…af22backed Over | 57c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e6…224cbacked Under | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 43c | 87.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…7c67backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Over | 52c | 86.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 82.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebac…be55backed Over | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd167…4b25backed Under | 45c | 67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb609…93a6backed Under | 47c | 62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +106.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 52c | 61.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…80c9backed Over | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…9659backed Over | 55c | 45.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab2…5735backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…71e1backed Under | 53c | 37.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -6.6wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x334f…0d32backed Under | 51c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 353 | 52.4%185 W · 168 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 44c | 28.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…5cdcbacked Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 228.5this page
- Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Suns won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Suns won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Suns won
- Warriors vs. SunsSuns won
- Warriors vs. Suns: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 229.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 231.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.