TailMyPicks
Market

WNBA · resolved market

Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-8.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Los Angeles Sparksof Los Angeles Sparks, PortlandFire
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,474
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,126

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,474 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x26b4…b8a9backed PortlandFire59c3,359$1,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9782339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Los Angeles Sparks45c2,755$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,515.25050%25 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Sparks41c2,728$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,605.831,78751.7%924 W · 863 L+54.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed PortlandFire55c2,500$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,374.995354.7%29 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Sparks47c1,317$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.551,63250.2%819 W · 813 L+37.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd37…e117backed Los Angeles Sparks40c760$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4539254.3%50 W · 42 L+8.1wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef98…68f7backed PortlandFire54c737.29$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40040%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc48…c120backed PortlandFire41c600$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2464247.6%20 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed PortlandFire49c443$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.921,01247.9%485 W · 527 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45b5…2d74backed PortlandFire56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed PortlandFire54c273.98$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.9585948.4%416 W · 443 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Los Angeles Sparks41c256$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.0421150.2%106 W · 105 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed PortlandFire45c231.88$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.2561242.3%259 W · 353 L-31.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8778…fe54backed PortlandFire68c144.2$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.131855.6%10 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked PortlandFire55c127$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.852860.7%17 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Los Angeles Sparks47c110$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.338744.7%173 W · 214 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7797…668bbacked PortlandFire58c99.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.99742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed PortlandFire54c85.8$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0335118.5%65 W · 286 L-49.3wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-57.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x6303…9556backed Los Angeles Sparks44c79.89$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.89850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7a9…87e2backed PortlandFire55c66$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.37759.7%46 W · 31 L+9.0wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+17.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Los Angeles Sparks45c61.27$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8242749.4%211 W · 216 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21d3…6c27backed PortlandFire56c54.34$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4330%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Los Angeles Sparks42c50.17$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.119650.5%99 W · 97 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x976e…8453backed PortlandFire54c32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.284951%25 W · 24 L-7.3wins-0.15per pick66cpaid-25.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x31a0…5911backed PortlandFire50c20.23$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.122119%4 W · 17 L-6.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-64.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked PortlandFire50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1014944.3%66 W · 83 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.