MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ae7bb0227f81cca12e8959de5e62de92921208db4ea0b88e284877a756106c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago White Sox | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 50c | 4,813$2,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,419.62 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago White Sox | 35c | 4,110$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.87 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 3,333$1,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,966.47 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Boston Red Sox | 65c | 2,359$1,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.81 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Chicago White Sox | 59c | 1,778$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.02 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 1,276$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.42 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af1…1901backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 699.99$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 580.92$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.51 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 471$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.14 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 376.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.68 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…b4b2backed Chicago White Sox | 60c | 259.28$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.52 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 55c | 255.07$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.29 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Boston Red Sox | 33c | 227.79$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.62 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 209.82$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Chicago White Sox | 59c | 204.95$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.92 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 151$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 133$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Boston Red Sox | 66c | 117.39$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Boston Red Sox | 66c | 113.64$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 108$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 108$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Chicago White Sox | 13c | 89.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Chicago White Sox | 23c | 87.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 267 | 51.7%138 W · 129 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 82.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 77.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…a0bdbacked Boston Red Sox | 65c | 74.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…905fbacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 72.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Boston Red Sox | 66c | 71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Chicago White Sox | 35c | 55.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Chicago White Sox | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 49.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Chicago White Sox | 36c | 49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Boston Red Sox | 41c | 49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Chicago White Sox | 60c | 46.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 38.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 37.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 26.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…6b0bbacked Chicago White Sox | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Boston Red Sox | 78c | 25.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ac…5fd6backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 24.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 23.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Boston Red Sox | 65c | 23.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1c…2679backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 23.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Chicago White Sox | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x786f…1dcdbacked Boston Red Sox | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.