MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b968f13145e2b5f24389987a826cfb8749bf03fb10bde115490451fcf529b5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 49c | 12,631$6,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,441.67 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Over | 53c | 9,497$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,497.18 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 51c | 8,888$4,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,532.88 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 8,058$4,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,019.41 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 49c | 4,790$2,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,352.54 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 3,223$1,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,581.77 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 50c | 1,891$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.65 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Over | 50c | 1,440$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 577 | 53.2%307 W · 270 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Under | 51c | 750$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.5 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 36c | 644.16$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.48 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 36c | 644.16$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.48 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 51c | 508$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.81 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 416$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 37c | 379.6$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.56 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 51c | 267.96$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.3 | 2,044 | 39.5%808 W · 1,236 L | -24.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 49c | 258.59$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.75 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 50c | 241.98$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.4 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 53c | 241.88$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.12 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Over | 24c | 207.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.45 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…724dbacked Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 37c | 195$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.53 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 41c | 161.53$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.83 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Over | 35c | 137.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.07 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Over | 65c | 127$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 58c | 113.59$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Under | 50c | 101.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 425 | 48.2%205 W · 220 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…e628backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 520 | 45.2%235 W · 285 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 54c | 97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 41c | 82.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 41c | 79.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 69c | 73.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 57c | 71.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Over | 37c | 64.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 37c | 64.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Over | 36c | 64.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 56c | 60.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 51c | 58.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…3a59backed Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…1068backed Under | 50c | 39.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 149 | 51.7%77 W · 72 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Over | 50c | 35.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 277 | 53.1%147 W · 130 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 74c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 343 | 55.4%190 W · 153 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 18.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 77c | 16.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 79c | 15.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.