UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1aec89935114351e9a32875fbfa29744ceb7a83272399276660ff7ab6a3fbd29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa680…211bbacked Over | 57c | 2,497$1,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,423.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 43c | 1,650$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.5 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Over | 59c | 1,540$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.6 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 41c | 1,500$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Over | 16c | 1,374$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.84 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Over | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 17c | 991.38$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.53 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…f426backed Over | 3c | 953.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Over | 2c | 900$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 55c | 418.65$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.26 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Under | 43c | 348.84$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.84 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf99…9840backed Under | 43c | 240$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 44c | 230$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.85 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 56c | 225.25$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.14 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 41c | 160.95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.16 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Under | 45c | 140$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9107…46d6backed Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd1…cfb5backed Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Over | 58c | 89.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…a520backed Under | 43c | 83.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under | 45c | 63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 55c | 57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 58cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Under | 43c | 44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Under | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00bd…95f9backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -10.7wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x219f…7420backed Over | 60c | 33.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0c…dfe8backed Over | 59c | 29.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…5551backed Over | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…6559backed Over | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Michael Chiesa vs. Niko Price (Welterweight, Main Card)Michael Chiesa won
- Will Michael Chiesa win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.