UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Michael Chiesa vs. Niko Price (Welterweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x840c905be81c3a3df4cf73083b048e9cbfb6d1b628aa2c1e35a8f9de402ffa1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michael Chiesaof Michael Chiesa, Niko Price
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $387,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $407,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $387,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Niko Price | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 138 | 36.2%50 W · 88 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…d420backed Niko Price | 12c | 41,354$5,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,075.33 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b8…8e25backed Niko Price | 11c | 36,294$4,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,142.71 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Niko Price | 12c | 35,000$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,200 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Niko Price | 12c | 28,967$3,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,443.3 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Niko Price | 10c | 24,898$2,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,537.42 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c62…d8d6backed Niko Price | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…eadcbacked Niko Price | 11c | 8,924$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.66 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…6f94backed Niko Price | 11c | 5,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Niko Price | 12c | 3,560$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.09 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…1080backed Niko Price | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…99acbacked Niko Price | 12c | 2,526$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.14 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Niko Price | 14c | 2,026$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.71 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Niko Price | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Niko Price | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…b202backed Niko Price | 13c | 1,410$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.3 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Niko Price | 11c | 1,380$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.52 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Niko Price | 11c | 1,200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138a…9e2fbacked Niko Price | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5525…5625backed Niko Price | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8188…0667backed Niko Price | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -46%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…3d9abacked Niko Price | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Niko Price | 14c | 989.29$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.04 | 145 | 43.4%63 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Niko Price | 1c | 900$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Niko Price | 12c | 841.67$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…68d7backed Niko Price | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Niko Price | 16c | 813.19$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.87 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Niko Price | 11c | 777$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.47 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Niko Price | 14c | 612.29$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0094…c496backed Niko Price | 13c | 547.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d9…8608backed Niko Price | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Niko Price | 6c | 494.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e17…2301backed Niko Price | 17c | 469$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee5c…2775backed Niko Price | 12c | 462$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Niko Price | 14c | 447$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c7…5d22backed Niko Price | 16c | 418.81$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d3…e8e1backed Niko Price | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcb…f91abacked Niko Price | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18f…5166backed Niko Price | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Niko Price | 11c | 416.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6aaa…ddfdbacked Niko Price | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Niko Price | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Niko Price | 13c | 350$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe2…0d54backed Niko Price | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…e854backed Niko Price | 12c | 320.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f16…b5b9backed Niko Price | 13c | 319.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dd…4b12backed Niko Price | 14c | 305.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91a…4ea7backed Niko Price | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Niko Price | 15c | 299.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5674…8b14backed Niko Price | 13c | 261.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Niko Price | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Niko Price | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 35cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…909dbacked Niko Price | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe10e…63b3backed Niko Price | 15c | 247.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…1e5cbacked Niko Price | 13c | 237.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed Niko Price | 18c | 225.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972c…c0aabacked Niko Price | 16c | 221$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Niko Price | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb9…dc3dbacked Niko Price | 12c | 206.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4a…7045backed Niko Price | 15c | 200.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Niko Price | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Niko Price | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Niko Price | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…06b3backed Niko Price | 13c | 198.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…4136backed Niko Price | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9023…1143backed Niko Price | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3140…b176backed Niko Price | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f64…6ddfbacked Niko Price | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b38…7edebacked Niko Price | 12c | 166$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Niko Price | 12c | 160$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed Niko Price | 11c | 154.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 283 | 33.2%94 W · 189 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Niko Price | 10c | 154.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2d…9417backed Niko Price | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed Niko Price | 12c | 108.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 186 | 47.3%88 W · 98 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2e…56d9backed Niko Price | 12c | 108.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…fab1backed Niko Price | 12c | 107.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e3…cb10backed Niko Price | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Niko Price | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Niko Price | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c11…b8c7backed Niko Price | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c28…6a12backed Niko Price | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b2…989cbacked Niko Price | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +56%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Niko Price | 14c | 99.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Niko Price | 17c | 85.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Niko Price | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +7.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +37%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31bd…d63bbacked Niko Price | 18c | 66.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Michael Chiesa | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Michael Chiesa vs. Niko Price (Welterweight, Main Card)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Michael Chiesa win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.