Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b2e88c12f26a9ad887c7168d825fde9f507fa7e190bf4f41a97b2ac486ecd34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 474.32$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.79 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 62c | 417.37$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.14 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…fa82backed No | 5c | 374.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 306.54$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 28c | 291.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.31 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 37c | 259.82$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.33 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 194$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.67 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 193.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 34c | 191.3$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.95 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 34c | 191.29$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.29 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 183.53$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 65c | 174.28$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.15 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 170.62$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.24 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…0197backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 32c | 160$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.98 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 38c | 158.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.61 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 21c | 157.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…154ebacked Yes | 34c | 152.06$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.61 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 44c | 137.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.54 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 66c | 121.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 37c | 106.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 104.3$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 36c | 95.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 11c | 93.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 71c | 92.53$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 87.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 35c | 75.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 68.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 64.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…2efebacked Yes | 39c | 62.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 61.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 59.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 28c | 57.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 48c | 53.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0718…a164backed No | 65c | 48.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 30c | 48.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 35c | 48.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 44c | 45.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 62c | 44.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 63c | 42.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…8ec6backed Yes | 37c | 42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 74c | 41.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 63c | 36.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 48c | 36.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 37c | 35.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 55c | 35.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 43c | 34.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 59c | 32.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 65c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 30.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked No | 35c | 30.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 62c | 30.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…9907backed No | 78c | 29.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…2133backed No | 68c | 28.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 36c | 28.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 53c | 25.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed No | 72c | 24.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 64c | 23.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 65c | 20.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 67c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 58c | 17.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.