Ligue 1 · resolved market
OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b6fd4292929c03e4693c35ab1f971287db5e3b20fde35b4e4f3c65cdd951343
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f3c…2f57backed Yes | 52c | 3,125$1,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,625 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 48c | 1,019$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.36 | 304 | 48%146 W · 158 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 46c | 1,009$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.07 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed No | 48c | 969.5$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.54 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 48c | 590.15$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.37 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Yes | 54c | 511.92$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.44 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…a28bbacked No | 45c | 272.57$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Yes | 56c | 265.3$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.66 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 42c | 191.28$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.94 | 132 | 50.8%67 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 42c | 190$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.2 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 57c | 188.18$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.61 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Yes | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 260 | 46.2%120 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked No | 41c | 138$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.42 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 71c | 115$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 296 | 37.5%111 W · 185 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -10.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x092f…d9fdbacked Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 48c | 47.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 54c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xece0…7dc9backed Yes | 56c | 44.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 45c | 39.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed No | 48c | 39.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Yes | 52c | 38.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 46c | 31.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 43c | 30.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 55c | 28.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 45c | 23.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 53c | 21.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient: O/U 0.5Under won
- OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient: O/U 1.5Under won
- OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5Under won
- OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient: O/U 3.5Under won
- OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient: O/U 4.5Under won
- OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Lorient (-1.5)OGC Nice won
- Spread: OGC Nice (-1.5)FC Lorient won
- Spread: OGC Nice (-2.5)FC Lorient won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.