Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1babb19fdbe5b941c4541bb3f9058b07e8975d7b5b7c480d19f2830cefb6b3f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 32c | 345.89$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.66 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 224.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 43c | 212.58$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.77 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 59c | 207.62$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.36 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.95 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5a…bc49backed No | 59c | 164.12$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.49 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 27c | 135.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.66 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…53d0backed No | 46c | 131.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 51c | 117.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 46c | 116.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.17 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 57c | 110.25$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 64c | 97.74$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 20c | 92.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 47c | 91.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 88.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.14 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 55c | 85.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb460…6424backed Yes | 63c | 81.24$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 36c | 81.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 58c | 78.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 76.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 72.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed No | 47c | 72.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 69c | 72.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 71.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 51c | 71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 67.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…c876backed Yes | 45c | 66.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 57c | 63.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…f35fbacked No | 47c | 60.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 60.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…cc7dbacked No | 44c | 57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 35c | 53.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 51.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 52c | 51.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 55c | 50.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 35c | 49.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 79c | 47.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 38c | 47.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 46.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 44c | 46.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 43c | 45.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 55c | 44.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed Yes | 47c | 42.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…b7a2backed No | 47c | 41.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 35.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 57c | 34.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 38c | 32.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 37c | 32.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x463d…abb2backed No | 57c | 31.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 64c | 31.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…b1b2backed No | 50c | 31.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 65c | 30.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 57c | 30.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 44c | 29.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 65c | 26.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 54c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 58c | 25.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…8f49backed Yes | 54c | 24.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 22.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e04…3475backed No | 59c | 22.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 64cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 56c | 20.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed No | 61c | 19.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 69c | 14.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 92°F or higher on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.