Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d275ea428805bf6dee666eaf2ac51e5d7689dd674d8699c97bb313a6bd3df55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 7c | 691.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 689.17$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 224.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 76c | 222.43$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 206.76$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.83 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 205.79$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 185.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 23c | 158.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 157.45$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 76c | 155.43$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 24c | 137.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 79c | 90.11$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 25c | 84.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 78.89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 77.75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 27c | 74.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 76c | 69.38$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…27f6backed No | 75c | 67.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 28c | 54.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 23c | 53.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 78c | 50.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 100 | 81%81 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ead…8046backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 46 | 84.8%39 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 49.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 76c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 46.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 77c | 44.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 73c | 31.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 77c | 25.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 22.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5831…9a0abacked No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e04…3475backed No | 73c | 17.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 64cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 73c | 17.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 14.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 92°F or higher on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 1?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.