Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 92°F or higher on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5dab1583adbbc3c54091dd9e52ad4e466ee2be72930875bc8b1e81e48038a50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 285.11$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Yes | 6c | 257.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 30c | 236.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed Yes | 24c | 236.28$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 227.42$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 225.06$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.92 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 33c | 150$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 146.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5a…bc49backed No | 71c | 140.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…94b8backed Yes | 29c | 137.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf97a…3269backed Yes | 36c | 132.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 122.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 34c | 108.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 39c | 96.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 88.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 76c | 74.23$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 29c | 73.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 71c | 69.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 36c | 67.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 71c | 66.12$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e0…7b25backed Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 69c | 57.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 67c | 52.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 27c | 52.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 68c | 51.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2b9abacked Yes | 32c | 51.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 47.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9c…3bf2backed Yes | 29c | 46.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463d…abb2backed Yes | 27c | 45.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 28c | 36.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 31.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa69c…0b35backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 30.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…06fbbacked No | 65c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 36c | 28.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 70c | 28.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 65c | 27.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 72c | 22.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 20.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 64c | 19.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 19.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…8f49backed No | 53c | 18.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 67c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 72c | 15.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x020c…f6c9backed No | 71c | 14.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 92°F or higher on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 1?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.