Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet between 130-139 times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1baf82c8478fdf3d260f9b20afb590f2a285b96aab1aee9df4e5db30b76bca31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 10c | 1,949$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.47 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0705…9dfcbacked Yes | 16c | 1,682$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.61 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…0b9cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,650$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.78 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 10c | 1,354$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.37 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa673…090abacked Yes | 8c | 1,002$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…67a9backed Yes | 6c | 908.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 7c | 760.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 11c | 725.11$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.85 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 10c | 618.18$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4840…808cbacked Yes | 6c | 580$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 9c | 518.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 86 | 11.6%10 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9876…38e6backed Yes | 10c | 482.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 4c | 438.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 36c | 436.44$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.47 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 17c | 350$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26a7…5374backed Yes | 31c | 350$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 7c | 303.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…f2c6backed Yes | 26c | 223.06$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…73eebacked Yes | 8c | 203$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…d297backed Yes | 8c | 159.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…aad3backed Yes | 7c | 156.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…be01backed Yes | 10c | 147.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…ef88backed Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9200…b3b5backed Yes | 15c | 105.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5dc…0d98backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b8…6feebacked Yes | 20c | 94.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…102abacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet between 130-139 times?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150 or more times?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet between 100-109 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 110-119 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 120-129 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 140-149 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 60-69 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 70-79 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 80-89 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 90-99 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 60 times?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.