Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 150 or more times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee5fdda02b9b52118a350df8b9194a2e04686ece13bac470c2480fd46d05c42a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 67c | 6,677$4,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,446.31 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +187%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…2433backed Yes | 29c | 3,499$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,498.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed No | 25c | 3,321$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.99 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…c5aebacked Yes | 42c | 3,185$1,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840.31 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 79c | 2,293$1,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,802.85 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab7…c3eebacked Yes | 37c | 1,889$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,187.62 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0705…9dfcbacked Yes | 41c | 1,729$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.39 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…17fbbacked Yes | 52c | 1,691$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…0b9cbacked Yes | 36c | 1,630$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.87 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…67a9backed Yes | 44c | 1,546$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.3 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 27c | 1,360$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.28 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 34c | 1,231$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.57 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked No | 6c | 1,166$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed No | 7c | 1,142$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.94 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +251.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fe…c728backed No | 22c | 1,130$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.67 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 28c | 1,038$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.75 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed No | 21c | 986.62$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.19 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 29c | 922.54$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.8 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed Yes | 67c | 896.92$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 58c | 760.25$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.12 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 14c | 733.73$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.17 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cc…31fdbacked Yes | 74c | 692.22$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.78 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed No | 58c | 621.46$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.24 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299b…49f6backed Yes | 79c | 612.87$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78c9…4032backed Yes | 65c | 600$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535f…5ce5backed Yes | 19c | 589.17$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +174.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 3c | 570$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 20cpaid | +1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9876…38e6backed Yes | 63c | 565.34$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.1 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed No | 69c | 549.08$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.87 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 65cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 16c | 506.21$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.27 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6270…243bbacked Yes | 14c | 498.86$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 16cpaid | +126%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aab…0cd4backed Yes | 41c | 491.28$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.8 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bba…9b86backed No | 60c | 425.79$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.66 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 79c | 400$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…73eebacked Yes | 13c | 390$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…711bbacked Yes | 27c | 383.96$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.29 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde4c…1f8abacked Yes | 79c | 341.96$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…a89bbacked Yes | 71c | 317.46$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 51c | 307.95$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.07 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…adfdbacked Yes | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 39c | 298.79$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.94 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 21c | 297.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 66c | 295.15$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.27 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…d19cbacked Yes | 51c | 260$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.16 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…5701backed Yes | 78c | 256.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 78c | 250$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.29 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…102abacked Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…ef88backed Yes | 12c | 223$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.24 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 22c | 172.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 86 | 11.6%10 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…c9b5backed No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 78c | 124$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 69c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351f…6815backed Yes | 62c | 105$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 10c | 102.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.56 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…085bbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f1…5bccbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f5…7551backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…fe87backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…7f4fbacked Yes | 12c | 97.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9522…d65cbacked Yes | 34c | 96.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…dcdfbacked No | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…f2c6backed Yes | 21c | 94.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.29 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c7…22eebacked Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 20cpaid | +338.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 31c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe898…d69dbacked Yes | 45c | 72.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5dc…0d98backed Yes | 78c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x909a…b378backed Yes | 21c | 59.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +381.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 76c | 54.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03a1…3cb7backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…ed79backed No | 29c | 52.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…ab4cbacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5026…c09ebacked Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…6501backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba4…f958backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…a3efbacked Yes | 52c | 46.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfa…fd5cbacked No | 23c | 45.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8faf…3ca9backed Yes | 80c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf89…4952backed No | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…90b1backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fac…e4e1backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe3…91e7backed Yes | 80c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 79c | 37.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b52…47ccbacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +60%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…baaebacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe607…1886backed Yes | 79c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…b3febacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2617…0753backed Yes | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1beb…d11cbacked No | 78c | 22.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ab…837cbacked Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb849…fda3backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…1295backed Yes | 80c | 18.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a5…5f80backed Yes | 78c | 17.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9abd…0b3abacked No | 75c | 17.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 150 or more times?this page
- Will Elon tweet between 100-109 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 110-119 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 120-129 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 130-139 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 140-149 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 60-69 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 70-79 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 80-89 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 90-99 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 60 times?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.