Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bb8894996ca3f014d6a949e2f2a59d5e7113c7bb16b595bae97c01d25ca30d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 1,965$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 592.31$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 255$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 27c | 149$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 145$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…0f4dbacked Yes | 30c | 135.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 30c | 134.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 80c | 119$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 31c | 103.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 92.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 19c | 90.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 18c | 87.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 84.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 26c | 82.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 79.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 70c | 71.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 68.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 31c | 56.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 53.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…1fafbacked No | 75c | 52.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 31c | 42.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 69c | 42.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 27c | 41.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 25c | 41.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 37.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 28c | 37.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 70c | 36.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 36.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…869fbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 70c | 28.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 22.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.