Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb84e7614125cd64b947f97da1edc4b9a63a91b17714e19df3347b5421a6af928
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 27c | 2,949$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.39 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 493$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.04 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 29c | 426$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.88 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 418$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.86 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 6c | 399.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 289$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 61c | 258.47$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.61 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 73c | 250$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 73c | 250$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 30c | 246$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.13 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 73c | 177$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 73c | 172$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 77c | 165.8$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 165.23$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 145$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 20c | 143.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 132.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 12c | 129.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 118.11$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 117.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 24c | 95.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes | 16c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 80.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e4…5a8cbacked Yes | 19c | 78.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 23c | 67.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 61.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 56.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…5548backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 27.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfec4…cfc8backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.