Fifa International · resolved market
Brazil to score first vs. Haiti?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1be3f0e271b535b1f70f5f04ec47d2da9b2463393161cc018a9c0dfd0f524486
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x412f…30fabacked No | 13c | 57,429$7,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,484.22 | 187 | 38%71 W · 116 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…b3b4backed No | 12c | 6,466$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.21 | 203 | 33.5%68 W · 135 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 13c | 3,620$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.95 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked No | 12c | 2,228$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.38 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 10c | 991.34$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.62 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed No | 12c | 967.66$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.12 | 195 | 45.6%89 W · 106 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 14c | 795$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 219 | 58%127 W · 92 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 8c | 543.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9709…52abbacked No | 13c | 538.6$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.22 | 192 | 47.9%92 W · 100 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 12c | 473$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 11c | 454.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 13c | 279.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed No | 12c | 255.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 1,005 | 44.3%445 W · 560 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 402 | 39.8%160 W · 242 L | -13.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 166 | 33.7%56 W · 110 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed No | 12c | 126.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 402 | 40%161 W · 241 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 14c | 117.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 199 | 39.7%79 W · 120 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…3206backed No | 13c | 116$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de2…cd3fbacked No | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 207 | 33.3%69 W · 138 L | -11.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Brazil to score first vs. Haiti?this page
- Brazil vs. Haiti: Neither team to score first?No won
- Haiti to score first vs. Brazil?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.