Tennis · resolved market
Francavilla: August Holmgren vs Guy Den Ouden
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bfb092b47da302a0b5746b046f98cb5da074232c491b284702e9a144d41b9fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- August Holmgrenof August Holmgren, Guy Den Ouden
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4699…5051backed Guy Den Ouden | 9c | 2,385$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.51 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…a1a6backed Guy Den Ouden | 60c | 1,870$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.93 | 271 | 48%130 W · 141 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Guy Den Ouden | 9c | 1,506$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.77 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32bf…ec60backed Guy Den Ouden | 19c | 1,060$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Guy Den Ouden | 35c | 800$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1,026 | 46.8%480 W · 546 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked August Holmgren | 42c | 717.31$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.04 | 503 | 40%201 W · 302 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Guy Den Ouden | 10c | 687.59$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.01 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…f152backed August Holmgren | 59c | 681$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281 | 734 | 58.6%430 W · 304 L | -26.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Guy Den Ouden | 58c | 587.5$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.46 | 1,865 | 44.7%834 W · 1,031 L | +36.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed August Holmgren | 76c | 469.8$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.09 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Guy Den Ouden | 6c | 459.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Guy Den Ouden | 39c | 421.22$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.77 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked August Holmgren | 41c | 408.55$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.39 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed August Holmgren | 54c | 393.53$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.43 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed August Holmgren | 40c | 379.54$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.68 | 977 | 45.2%442 W · 535 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Guy Den Ouden | 7c | 338.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Guy Den Ouden | 58c | 272.87$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.26 | 1,865 | 45.6%851 W · 1,014 L | +50.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb7…3644backed August Holmgren | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 264 | 51.5%136 W · 128 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x547d…ea58backed Guy Den Ouden | 56c | 224.6$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.78 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked August Holmgren | 70c | 224.05$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.27 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4865…904dbacked August Holmgren | 74c | 203.18$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 370 | 71.9%266 W · 104 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Guy Den Ouden | 58c | 202.98$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.73 | 967 | 55.3%535 W · 432 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa55…e024backed Guy Den Ouden | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc105…c1b0backed Guy Den Ouden | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x54b2…0f1ebacked Guy Den Ouden | 58c | 175$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Guy Den Ouden | 56c | 167.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.37 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…e6a5backed Guy Den Ouden | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 259 | 57.1%148 W · 111 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Guy Den Ouden | 60c | 134.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed August Holmgren | 40c | 120$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Guy Den Ouden | 33c | 117.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Guy Den Ouden | 37c | 105$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 958 | 46.6%446 W · 512 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…7a6bbacked Guy Den Ouden | 26c | 100.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 95 | 27.4%26 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c3e5backed August Holmgren | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1,076 | 55.5%597 W · 479 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked August Holmgren | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed August Holmgren | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 311 | 53.1%165 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked August Holmgren | 42c | 75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed August Holmgren | 44c | 69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee0a…36d8backed August Holmgren | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 382 | 62.3%238 W · 144 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c71…c0e5backed Guy Den Ouden | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 366 | 40.7%149 W · 217 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bad…4d53backed August Holmgren | 43c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Guy Den Ouden | 33c | 42.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…d358backed August Holmgren | 61c | 42.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 341 | 59.5%203 W · 138 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Guy Den Ouden | 49c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 803 | 41.8%336 W · 467 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f7…a181backed August Holmgren | 42c | 35.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 513 | 47%241 W · 272 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d1…3744backed August Holmgren | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,104 | 66.9%739 W · 365 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked August Holmgren | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 497 | 49.9%248 W · 249 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Guy Den Ouden | 59c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 810 | 47.9%388 W · 422 L | +30.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…a4f0backed Guy Den Ouden | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 540 | 50.4%272 W · 268 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…7159backed Guy Den Ouden | 57c | 17.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 903 | 40.2%363 W · 540 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked August Holmgren | 66c | 15.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x890a…7623backed August Holmgren | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 249 | 75.5%188 W · 61 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.