Serie A · resolved market
Cagliari Calcio vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c43a03842a6682981d6587e08114b7584e39db869a2448b235f3db1340d29c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 57c | 2,281$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.1 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 67c | 2,231$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.67 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Yes | 22c | 1,395$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.85 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 55c | 985.43$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.52 | 249 | 53.8%134 W · 115 L | +20.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Yes | 22c | 985.32$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.77 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda70…828bbacked Yes | 45c | 502.62$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.18 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0391…ef9bbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 44c | 465.91$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 404 | 47.3%191 W · 213 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e46…e394backed Yes | 49c | 436.78$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.69 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 43c | 370.97$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.52 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes | 37c | 356.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Yes | 45c | 227.78$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a1…75abbacked Yes | 46c | 218.5$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.51 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x383c…bb92backed Yes | 46c | 191.3$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 54c | 147.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.07 | 372 | 50.5%188 W · 184 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Yes | 48c | 136.01$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Yes | 47c | 128.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 45c | 110.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 387 | 39.8%154 W · 233 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…d3dabacked Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 73c | 106.83$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…cecdbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d76…6fd4backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Yes | 45c | 73.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5562…3b41backed Yes | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…4747backed Yes | 15c | 69.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…dfdabacked Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9e…10bebacked Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa12c…b9ecbacked Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 47c | 59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf71…9f1cbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…8a9ebacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…264fbacked Yes | 43c | 46.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 24c | 44.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…0b89backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked No | 54c | 39.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 55c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x383e…d998backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 43c | 33.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cagliari Calcio vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Cagliari Calcio vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5Under won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5Under won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. SS Lazio: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. SS Lazio: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.