Serie A · resolved market
Cagliari Calcio vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x572d137c6d93288f584acfeace865558d446a97f4dfed98586c2dc5ca8d9f231
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee0d…57abbacked Over | 35c | 28,379$9,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,928.47 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 22,705$15,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,489.08 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Under | 65c | 4,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 65c | 2,400$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 455 | 47%214 W · 241 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 65c | 2,329$1,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.26 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 22c | 2,248$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 37c | 1,523$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.49 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 76c | 1,018$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.42 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 65c | 999.99$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355 | 249 | 53.8%134 W · 115 L | +20.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Over | 15c | 834.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.25 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 35c | 765.01$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.36 | 405 | 49.6%201 W · 204 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 25c | 623.72$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.93 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…9dcabacked Over | 35c | 540$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 65c | 538.46$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.46 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4c…a700backed Over | 36c | 410.22$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 162 | 51.2%83 W · 79 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Over | 39c | 380$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.2 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 69c | 374.55$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.41 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 66c | 350.94$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.8 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 69c | 341.85$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.11 | 498 | 50.6%252 W · 246 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x383c…bb92backed Over | 36c | 305.56$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Over | 34c | 299.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c3…81e3backed Over | 36c | 295.48$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5562…3b41backed Over | 22c | 276$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.02 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 114 | 29.8%34 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 68c | 255.81$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.92 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 62c | 195.26$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.16 | 260 | 40%104 W · 156 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 180 | 55%99 W · 81 L | +15.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 66c | 124.66$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…98edbacked Over | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Over | 35c | 106$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 267 | 47.2%126 W · 141 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 35c | 98.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7e1fbacked Over | 36c | 94.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…a489backed Over | 36c | 87.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 62c | 80.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 66c | 79.21$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 65c | 76.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 64c | 72.91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 404 | 47.3%191 W · 213 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 63c | 64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Over | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Over | 34c | 59.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…8a9ebacked Over | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…264fbacked Over | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca4…817ebacked Over | 35c | 56.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Over | 36c | 54.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Over | 32c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Under | 67c | 44.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ef…8e6fbacked Over | 36c | 41.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Over | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…e49cbacked Under | 65c | 34.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Over | 34c | 32.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ac…3c1fbacked Over | 34c | 29.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 76c | 28.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 36c | 27.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 171 | 42.7%73 W · 98 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…071abacked Under | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed Under | 62c | 19.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ec…f645backed Under | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…4747backed Under | 77c | 13.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cagliari Calcio vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5this page
- Cagliari Calcio vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5Under won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. SS Lazio: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. SS Lazio: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.