NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c48d5b4886b2f9e60e368fdee7df277b2c820ddec8c4977d13d892d8ea4fd90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Pistons, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x347a…03a4backed Pistons | 51c | 19,525$9,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,983 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…1795backed Mavericks | 52c | 18,721$9,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,986.08 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pistons | 48c | 13,102$6,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,288.72 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks | 50c | 4,898$2,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,465.02 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Mavericks | 52c | 4,011$2,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.28 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed7…e617backed Mavericks | 50c | 2,098$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mavericks | 48c | 2,041$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.22 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pistons | 44c | 735$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.4 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Mavericks | 52c | 600$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Mavericks | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Pistons | 49c | 314$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.86 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…0d57backed Mavericks | 51c | 284.31$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.31 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Pistons | 48c | 271.44$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.29 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Mavericks | 52c | 200.14$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.64 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Mavericks | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Mavericks | 49c | 200$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 184 | 53.3%98 W · 86 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Pistons | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Mavericks | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 522 | 42.7%223 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Mavericks | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks | 58c | 67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Mavericks | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…0a5cbacked Pistons | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 368 | 42.4%156 W · 212 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Pistons | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Pistons | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38db…d245backed Mavericks | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Mavericks | 58c | 34.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Pistons | 49c | 31.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 381 | 48.6%185 W · 196 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…b8d2backed Mavericks | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-7.5)this page
- Pistons vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Pistons vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Pistons vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.