NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce0d13b8b3a60962e957e465f83adfd54abbdc2c9940c894d314b68a14b241d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 6,127$2,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,928.58 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 48c | 4,100$1,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,132 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…0c1bbacked Under | 49c | 3,072$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,505.28 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -6.6wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Under | 52c | 2,712$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.24 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 52c | 1,730$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.6 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 49c | 1,249$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c62…01a3backed Under | 51c | 1,249$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4acb…ddd3backed Under | 53c | 1,089$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.17 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e9…5112backed Over | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 217 | 49.3%107 W · 110 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Under | 52c | 321.15$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff63…5aa1backed Over | 52c | 269.23$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.23 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fcf…483fbacked Under | 52c | 175$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 47c | 153.5$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.35 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Under | 53c | 153.5$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.36 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 51c | 140$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5761…d4bdbacked Under | 52c | 73.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 54c | 65.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Over | 46c | 54.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 342 | 46.8%160 W · 182 L | +18.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 46c | 49.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 479 | 48%230 W · 249 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 331 | 47.4%157 W · 174 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 47c | 41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca8…ddddbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 278 | 46.8%130 W · 148 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 146 | 48.6%71 W · 75 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 312 | 50.3%157 W · 155 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 366 | 51.4%188 W · 178 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 315 | 51.1%161 W · 154 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pistons vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5this page
- Pistons vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Pistons vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Pistons vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Pistons (-7.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.