TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Falcons vs. Cardinals: O/U 45.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,849
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,804

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,849 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa6a8…5009backed Under47c5,404$2,515 inWon+$2,889.3560049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over53c2,483$1,316 inLost-$1,315.9473651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3ff…e92cbacked Over59c2,315$1,366 inLost-$1,365.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99d8…df77backed Under41c2,293$940 inWon+$1,352.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9946…673cbacked Over59c2,219$1,309 inLost-$1,309.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcf3…4cc7backed Under41c2,211$906 inWon+$1,304.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d5a…ca07backed Under41c2,089$857 inWon+$1,232.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb11…03fbbacked Over59c2,089$1,232 inLost-$1,232.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under42c2,000$840 inWon+$1,16053253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over55c1,983$1,081 inLost-$1,081.1750242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa778…dc08backed Over59c1,926$1,136 inLost-$1,136.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3db9…8bf7backed Under41c1,897$778 inWon+$1,119.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf98b…b09abacked Under41c1,778$729 inWon+$1,048.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x83df…14afbacked Over59c1,720$1,015 inLost-$1,015.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Over58c1,629$945 inLost-$944.8219240.1%77 W · 115 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Over61c855$522 inLost-$521.5568446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over58c366$212 inLost-$212.2826649.6%132 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under39c333.46$131 inWon+$202.411,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2e5…ebeabacked Over60c166.67$100 inLost-$10019651.5%101 W · 95 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked Under40c141.67$57 inWon+$851450%7 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Over60c100$60 inLost-$6018336.1%66 W · 117 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e1…57f1backed Over61c81.97$50 inLost-$505862.1%36 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Over56c55$31 inLost-$30.6529439.5%116 W · 178 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under40c25$10 inWon+$1516349.7%81 W · 82 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Over73c15.13$11 inLost-$1120757.5%119 W · 88 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.