NFL · resolved market
Spread: Falcons (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1249d6cfc59d271934dfb1e807ac655c9ea8f001dba1f655d0fa74e8fee3089
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Falconsof Falcons, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Falcons | 43c | 13,170$5,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,506.9 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Cardinals | 57c | 7,500$4,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,275.05 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…c9b4backed Cardinals | 58c | 5,172$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 181 | 40.9%74 W · 107 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Falcons | 42c | 1,520$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.03 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Cardinals | 58c | 772.29$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.6 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed Cardinals | 58c | 733.96$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.7 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Falcons | 42c | 559.72$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.23 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Cardinals | 57c | 400$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Cardinals | 58c | 340$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.2 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Cardinals | 57c | 233$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.81 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Falcons | 43c | 150$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Cardinals | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Cardinals | 55c | 96.59$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Cardinals | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Cardinals | 46c | 71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Falcons | 42c | 65.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Falcons | 42c | 55.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed Falcons | 46c | 50.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Cardinals | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…9b3fbacked Falcons | 47c | 49.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +6.9wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Falcons | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ae…2103backed Cardinals | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -5.4wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Cardinals | 67c | 37.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Cardinals | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…d9f6backed Cardinals | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked Cardinals | 57c | 29.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Falcons (-3.5)this page
- Falcons vs. CardinalsFalcons won
- Falcons vs. Cardinals: O/U 44.5Over won
- Falcons vs. Cardinals: O/U 45.5Under won
- Falcons vs. Cardinals: O/U 46.5Under won
- Falcons vs. Cardinals: O/U 47.5Under won
- Falcons vs. Cardinals: O/U 48.5Under won
- Spread: Cardinals (-1.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Falcons (-1.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Falcons (-2.5)Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.