TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Falcons vs. Cardinals: O/U 46.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$48,954
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,949

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,954 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Over56c4,164$2,330 inLost-$2,329.811,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under44c4,004$1,762 inWon+$2,242.2883147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76c4…8faebacked Under44c2,521$1,109 inWon+$1,411.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb10b…472ebacked Over56c2,504$1,402 inLost-$1,402.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7664…0d44backed Over56c2,454$1,374 inLost-$1,374.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eb7…1da9backed Under44c2,429$1,069 inWon+$1,360.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6449…cbb2backed Over56c2,328$1,304 inLost-$1,303.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f6…724abacked Under44c2,314$1,018 inWon+$1,295.662100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+106.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc11e…ab81backed Under44c2,295$1,010 inWon+$1,285.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9e…2bc9backed Over56c2,274$1,273 inLost-$1,273.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb127…5431backed Under44c2,208$972 inWon+$1,236.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68e…3747backed Over56c2,201$1,232 inLost-$1,232.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a88…abf5backed Over56c2,186$1,224 inLost-$1,224.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3edf…9662backed Under44c2,104$926 inWon+$1,178.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a9c…0a4bbacked Under44c2,050$902 inWon+$1,148.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ca3…f070backed Under44c2,049$902 inWon+$1,147.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65bf…880ebacked Over56c2,035$1,140 inLost-$1,139.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf69b…98b8backed Over56c2,014$1,128 inLost-$1,127.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c5d…ae4ebacked Under44c1,939$853 inWon+$1,085.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda48…15eabacked Over56c1,891$1,059 inLost-$1,058.71250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6cf…b558backed Over56c1,832$1,026 inLost-$1,025.9620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe1c…4e32backed Under44c1,809$796 inWon+$1,013.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Over55c600$330 inLost-$33011946.2%55 W · 64 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under45c600$270 inWon+$33075852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff63…5aa1backed Over58c193.47$112 inLost-$112.211435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under45c190.33$86 inWon+$104.6834652.9%183 W · 163 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under42c84.47$35 inWon+$48.9917656.3%99 W · 77 L+16.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+21.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Under42c55$23 inWon+$31.910461.5%64 W · 40 L+12.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+25.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Over58c51.9$30 inLost-$3011260.7%68 W · 44 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed Under42c27$11 inWon+$15.6611658.6%68 W · 48 L+10.1wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed Under42c27$11 inWon+$15.6610757.9%62 W · 45 L+8.8wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.