TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Falcons vs. Cardinals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Falconsof Falcons, Cardinals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,062,236
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,290,996

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,062,236 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,314 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Cardinals43c439,396$188,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188,940.2417041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Cardinals42c267,864$112,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112,203.7886547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Falcons58c245,397$142,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103,066.6811544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Falcons57c186,213$106,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80,071.594250%21 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Falcons57c140,849$80,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,640.430043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Falcons58c111,915$65,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,807.9547348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Falcons56c105,000$59,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,899.999359.1%55 W · 38 L+10.2wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Falcons57c99,100$56,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,67927454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Cardinals44c75,000$33,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,00016836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbda3…cab2backed Cardinals43c72,084$30,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,995.91650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+54.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Cardinals37c36,267$13,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,502.6311643.1%50 W · 66 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Falcons46c35,940$16,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,554.6612944.2%57 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Falcons60c34,222$20,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,808.799245.7%42 W · 50 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Falcons59c31,860$18,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,062.597951.9%41 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Falcons58c23,143$13,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,728.620755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Cardinals21c20,672$4,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,242.2620026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Falcons60c20,000$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,999.9924652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Cardinals41c19,000$7,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,789.9316545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe965…6559backed Falcons74c18,652$13,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,771.886149.2%30 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Falcons57c15,779$8,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,803.431854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Cardinals43c15,000$6,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,399.9835848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Falcons55c14,130$7,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,357.8473651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0549…c052backed Cardinals42c13,665$5,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,739.355855.2%32 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Falcons58c12,410$7,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,224.1614951%76 W · 73 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Falcons57c10,691$6,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,603.9883147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Falcons57c10,438$5,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,488.3612744.9%57 W · 70 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc9df…249ebacked Cardinals47c10,000$4,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,674.46714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick43cpaid-68.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Cardinals52c8,881$4,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,639.8175852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Cardinals44c8,385$3,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,689.5116955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Cardinals43c7,536$3,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,224.233821.1%8 W · 30 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+55.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Falcons43c7,150$3,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,058.9812138.8%47 W · 74 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd666…411dbacked Cardinals42c6,940$2,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,914.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Cardinals44c6,666$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,899.712330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Falcons59c6,035$3,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,483.4553348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x192d…ebb8backed Falcons58c5,765$3,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,421.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f9…2aa8backed Falcons57c5,713$3,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,450.2929059.7%173 W · 117 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x387d…bd5fbacked Cardinals42c5,195$2,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,181.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Cardinals59c5,057$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.711850%9 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Cardinals41c5,000$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,05024053.8%129 W · 111 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Cardinals43c5,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,15011750.4%59 W · 58 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0cec…1a24backed Falcons55c4,696$2,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,117.53683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.36per pick48cpaid+73%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa07c…11a0backed Falcons53c4,689$2,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,183.85450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa140…7301backed Cardinals42c4,620$1,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,940.420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcec7…83fbbacked Falcons58c4,510$2,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,894.2580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+88.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Cardinals42c4,500$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,889.9826547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3bfe…759dbacked Cardinals42c4,408$1,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,851.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe85…e229backed Cardinals42c4,356$1,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,829.52633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Cardinals40c4,355$1,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,742.1121254.2%115 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7177…a89abacked Cardinals42c3,976$1,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,669.9230%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Falcons58c3,788$2,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,591.0620661.2%126 W · 80 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4642…9096backed Falcons58c3,685$2,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,547.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick66cpaid+54.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33df…9a83backed Falcons58c3,634$2,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,526.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick35cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cardinals28c3,562$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.7931543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dcc…c90cbacked Falcons58c3,493$2,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,467.06862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+31.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3f0…61b1backed Falcons58c3,472$2,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,458.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1b…3a80backed Cardinals42c3,471$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,457.82520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.37per pick57cpaid-72.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe76a…35c3backed Falcons58c3,317$1,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,393.14875%6 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+79.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0409…a5d6backed Cardinals42c3,276$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,375.9220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x984b…94bbbacked Cardinals42c3,236$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x81c2…cb74backed Falcons58c3,173$1,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,332.66475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick59cpaid+30%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeea…6cebbacked Cardinals42c3,162$1,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,328.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b09…a47dbacked Cardinals42c3,138$1,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,317.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4c7…21e8backed Falcons58c3,093$1,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,299.06333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0da9…992fbacked Cardinals42c3,019$1,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,267.9820%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc9e…134ebacked Falcons58c3,015$1,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,266.32100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+114.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f90…163cbacked Cardinals41c3,000$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,230520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-63.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x452a…241fbacked Falcons58c2,999$1,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.58560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08e9…16c2backed Cardinals42c2,955$1,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,241.110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8174…b511backed Falcons58c2,937$1,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,233.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2597…6fccbacked Cardinals42c2,925$1,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,228.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x430a…c79bbacked Cardinals42c2,877$1,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,208.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19ff…d0d0backed Falcons57c2,871$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,220.954240.5%17 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x344c…b1febacked Falcons58c2,849$1,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,196.58366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick68cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2838…fdd3backed Falcons43c2,820$1,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,594.22544%11 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9621…0a73backed Falcons58c2,809$1,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,166.164040%16 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-26.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Falcons57c2,807$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,207.0137350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9707…a0ffbacked Cardinals42c2,782$1,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,168.44425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-65.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0b1…faebbacked Cardinals27c2,766$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.67737.7%29 W · 48 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8762…8484backed Cardinals42c2,761$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.62520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-69.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x65ee…3857backed Falcons58c2,746$1,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,153.32250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a87…c5e0backed Falcons58c2,732$1,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.44580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+43.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Falcons58c2,721$1,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.9731848.1%153 W · 165 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b64…139dbacked Cardinals42c2,714$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79ce…e2f2backed Falcons58c2,712$1,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.04580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+41%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83d7…56bcbacked Cardinals42c2,696$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d8…bfbcbacked Cardinals42c2,680$1,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,125.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24d6…f172backed Falcons58c2,664$1,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,118.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb123…0a15backed Cardinals61c2,639$1,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,603.595248.1%25 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3505…f7a3backed Falcons57c2,632$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,131.588461.9%52 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Falcons66c2,621$1,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.5216254.9%89 W · 73 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa891…df1cbacked Cardinals42c2,584$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.2820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x649a…e4bcbacked Cardinals42c2,575$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,081.530%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x949b…4847backed Falcons58c2,563$1,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,076.462100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+108.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeffd…2038backed Cardinals42c2,554$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,072.68425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-65.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x001e…8316backed Falcons58c2,550$1,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0712100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick66cpaid+54.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5236…65d1backed Falcons58c2,540$1,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.8742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+93.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e18…5039backed Cardinals42c2,523$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059.6620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x221b…d798backed Cardinals42c2,515$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.3450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Cardinals41c2,507$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.9419543.6%85 W · 110 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Falcons58c2,500$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,05015252.6%80 W · 72 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.