NFL · resolved market
Falcons vs. Cardinals: O/U 48.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c7248d6310760668164c33d73023c1bd66cac9d300c56d713877a1e7590ed37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 52c | 30,160$15,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,476.8 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 13,875$6,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,644.03 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 13,202$6,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,368.89 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Over | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +14.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 51c | 8,190$4,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,012.97 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 6,755$3,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,279.05 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 5,969$2,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,865.17 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 49c | 4,421$2,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,166.1 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 48c | 3,165$1,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,519.2 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b22…c59cbacked Over | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Over | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 52c | 1,913$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.5 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 48c | 1,083$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.84 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Over | 48c | 820.83$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 48c | 800$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +12.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 48c | 728$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.44 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 205 | 55.6%114 W · 91 L | +15.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed Under | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 47c | 362.31$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.32 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +14.3wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Over | 49c | 204.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 48c | 180$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 163 | 60.1%98 W · 65 L | +16.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 48c | 150.56$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.27 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Under | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Over | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Over | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Over | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +16.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 104 | 61.5%64 W · 40 L | +12.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Over | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Under | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 56c | 66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +15.4wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +11.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…5487backed Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 105 | 65.7%69 W · 36 L | +16.6wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +12.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Over | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 101 | 61.4%62 W · 39 L | +11.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 107 | 61.7%66 W · 41 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 155 | 56.8%88 W · 67 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +11.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Over | 41c | 54.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked Over | 48c | 50.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…429fbacked Over | 49c | 25.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd483…6365backed Over | 49c | 24.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -46%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Falcons vs. Cardinals: O/U 48.5this page
- Falcons vs. CardinalsFalcons won
- Falcons vs. Cardinals: O/U 44.5Over won
- Falcons vs. Cardinals: O/U 45.5Under won
- Falcons vs. Cardinals: O/U 46.5Under won
- Falcons vs. Cardinals: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Cardinals (-1.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Falcons (-1.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Falcons (-2.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Falcons (-3.5)Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.