Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c8fc257f76314d3545b4befe0341824eb1ddbc0b180ab30afff66888a3e85e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeaf1…e136backed Yes | 14c | 477.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 320$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 3,939 | 23.2%913 W · 3,026 L | +125.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 304.75$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.44 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…8c99backed No | 66c | 268$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.03 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…6a5abacked Yes | 30c | 244.76$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.49 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 33c | 173.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 426 | 30.3%129 W · 297 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 167.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 78c | 151.49$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…6f31backed Yes | 45c | 145.01$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 130.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 76c | 110$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 31c | 102.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…ee15backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 620 | 44%273 W · 347 L | +25.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked No | 69c | 95.31$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 124 | 46%57 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 71c | 86.16$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 795 | 27.9%222 W · 573 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 75c | 86.12$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 221 | 60.6%134 W · 87 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 27c | 85.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 76.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 80c | 75.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 634 | 60.3%382 W · 252 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03b4…8706backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 28c | 67.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 390 | 70.5%275 W · 115 L | +65.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x024c…d07bbacked No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 58.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 64c | 49.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 30c | 48.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 44.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 428 | 62.1%266 W · 162 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 67c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x651e…e79dbacked Yes | 35c | 34.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 30.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 29.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 48c | 28.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 28.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 76c | 21.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafcc…dd1dbacked No | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 767 | 27%207 W · 560 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 74c | 14.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 401 | 47.6%191 W · 210 L | +24.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on August 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C or higher on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.