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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on August 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,715
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,550

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,715 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x164c…3e39backed Yes80c625.62$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.91,10251.7%570 W · 532 L+74.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+13.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xed29…3024backed Yes68c617.87$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.4227241.9%114 W · 158 L+15.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes27c452.99$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.291,45827.8%406 W · 1,052 L+77.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No71c427$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.391,85842.7%793 W · 1,065 L+50.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No4c418.14$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.652,29559.3%1,360 W · 935 L+118.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No10c413.43$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.121,06750.7%541 W · 526 L+29.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked Yes33c368$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.4832846.6%153 W · 175 L-1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e42…4938backed Yes48c333.47$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.7242630.3%129 W · 297 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No5c329.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51,01451.6%523 W · 491 L+108.5wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+9.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No35c323.99$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.7479527.9%222 W · 573 L-16.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b67…8c99backed No67c313$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.913778.4%29 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick71cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No43c306.68$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.2769758.4%407 W · 290 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaf1…e136backed No24c293.54$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.222317.4%4 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-62.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes38c273.8$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.8426556.2%149 W · 116 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e79…6a5abacked Yes36c257.76$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.977726%20 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No14c223.23$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8312,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes13c200$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17510613.2%14 W · 92 L+0.4wins0.00per pick13cpaid-41.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No64c200$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.171,48857.3%853 W · 635 L+46.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fad…242fbacked No76c184.72$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402669.2%18 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick67cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes28c158.98$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.6910,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1570…de29backed No65c153.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10047758.7%280 W · 197 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf361…783abacked No40c153.28$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.438863.6%56 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No18c146.64$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.536,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No29c140.13$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.521,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No28c139.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.51,17734.9%411 W · 766 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x33ab…149bbacked No64c132.53$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.8225569%176 W · 79 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeef1…21b8backed Yes31c129.9$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.554238.9%211 W · 331 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed No32c120$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9492329.1%269 W · 654 L+0.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb407…6eb1backed Yes16c119.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.815131.4%16 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No46c106.71$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3412,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed No35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3522116.7%37 W · 184 L-1.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7545630%137 W · 319 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90aa…bb09backed Yes36c90$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.61921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No60c88.39$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.471,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No24c86.73$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.042,25456.9%1,283 W · 971 L+69.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2549…c8b1backed Yes63c85.8$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4210640.6%43 W · 63 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes79c84$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6430032%96 W · 204 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No41c81.18$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.152,28358.3%1,331 W · 952 L+85.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No75c80.56$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4316958.6%99 W · 70 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes29c80$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.858850.9%299 W · 289 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No19c79.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.32,25057%1,282 W · 968 L+65.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No64c76.56$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496,16649.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L-117.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4550…0f28backed No66c75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.51741.2%7 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.20per pick61cpaid-41.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x12ac…cae8backed Yes27c74.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.073729.7%11 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes14c72.91$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.421,67137.9%633 W · 1,038 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42e5…c9a7backed No34c72.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8342133.3%140 W · 281 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed No22c71.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4261333%202 W · 411 L+36.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+14.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No23c69.21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.262,22356.1%1,247 W · 976 L+54.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No24c67.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.982,20156.8%1,250 W · 951 L+69.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b22…6f69backed Yes70c65.51$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.483857.9%22 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No31c64.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.632,17653.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L+36.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2035…dc1cbacked Yes79c64.23$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.584665.2%30 W · 16 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+23.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x03b4…8706backed Yes22c64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.82722.2%6 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+39.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed No30c62.83$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6350661.3%310 W · 196 L+42.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+10.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe828…ae41backed Yes32c61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4216832.1%54 W · 114 L-9.5wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No18c60.49$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.14,44253.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L-17.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No19c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3513852.2%72 W · 66 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bcd…57a4backed Yes21c60$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick33cpaid+163.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes70c55.29$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3815066%99 W · 51 L+18.9wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+28.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes29c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.51,31454%709 W · 605 L-26.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5203…b975backed No73c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.521940.6%89 W · 130 L-0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No26c49.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.833,72533.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L-194.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x46f7…ded2backed Yes34c48.92$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4817262.8%108 W · 64 L+14.9wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No41c46.82$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No71c44$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.242,43958%1,414 W · 1,025 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No71c44$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2499757.2%570 W · 427 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a68…edd3backed Yes52c42.24$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2819437.1%72 W · 122 L-12.3wins-0.06per pick43cpaid+7.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe660…514fbacked No64c42.19$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2720%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe188…c1d0backed Yes33c41.93$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2421146.9%99 W · 112 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec6f…b34fbacked No64c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.614262.7%89 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7bd…68b0backed No56c39.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.496535.4%23 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-0.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No74c34.8$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.775,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No60c32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.25,19368.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L+70.8wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd74…730cbacked No39c30.93$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.911668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+49.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes36c30.82$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.867,59237.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L+96.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef61…2ee6backed No67c29.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2041551.3%213 W · 202 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2fc…20bbbacked Yes35c28.81$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.77812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-64.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No71c28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.882,21574%1,638 W · 577 L+18.3wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50b0…7dc5backed No65c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2510259.8%61 W · 41 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dbe…d541backed Yes66c24.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-49.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes58c24.06$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.16,89139.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L+269.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.622045.9%101 W · 119 L-15.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5238…be0dbacked No79c19.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.473647.2%17 W · 19 L-6.8wins-0.19per pick66cpaid-34.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xbb97…603bbacked No64c16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.27266.7%48 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90f9…6114backed Yes71c16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.591782.4%14 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick73cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed Yes73c13.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.7840147.6%191 W · 210 L+24.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.