Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Metz vs. FC Lorient end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cb7f1393a65b8a820929db8e2e4651d7bfc9e9bc87fd2be0ca677b6cc7f04be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 23c | 1,122$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.12 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 76c | 724.75$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.29 | 227 | 45.8%104 W · 123 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 563.89$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.05 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed No | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 129 | 57.4%74 W · 55 L | +13.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 26c | 384.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 73c | 311.76$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.17 | 304 | 48%146 W · 158 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 74c | 300.62$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.58 | 233 | 42.5%99 W · 134 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 71c | 263.07$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.62 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…7024backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…3b62backed No | 74c | 192.05$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 76cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 27c | 190$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 78c | 129.11$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed No | 74c | 103.91$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 75c | 101.09$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 26c | 100.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 79c | 92$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 80 | 66.3%53 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 80.88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 74c | 78.52$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 26c | 69.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -11.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa386…cb0fbacked Yes | 27c | 67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…3203backed No | 74c | 59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 60cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked No | 74c | 49.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 76c | 37.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 260 | 46.2%120 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 72c | 35.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…7d41backed No | 74c | 34.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 181 | 55.2%100 W · 81 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 71c | 27.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 74c | 20.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed No | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Metz vs. FC Lorient end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Lorient win on 2026-05-10?Yes won
- Will FC Metz win on 2026-05-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.