Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cd595640f8a820380dce4ee64eeb65b35313aad6d81aa2bfbbead6252bb391d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 35c | 348.65$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.38 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 35c | 199.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.46 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 184$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.34 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 66c | 181.58$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 66c | 151.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 31c | 120.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 32c | 120.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 15c | 118.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 118.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…eefdbacked Yes | 33c | 90.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 37c | 72.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe37e…9de0backed Yes | 25c | 71.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 30c | 70.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 70.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 34c | 68.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 19c | 67.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 19c | 64.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 79c | 63.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…9d17backed No | 79c | 57.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3127…6f1bbacked Yes | 46c | 55.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 54.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 73c | 53.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 32c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 41c | 48.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed No | 61c | 48.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 41c | 47.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 28c | 46.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 44.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 62c | 43.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 43.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 41.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 40.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 39.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 39.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 66c | 38.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 37.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 35.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 68c | 34.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 61c | 34.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 35c | 31.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 67c | 30.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 68c | 27.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 39c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 41c | 26.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 24.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…4172backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 66c | 20.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cf…76b3backed No | 76c | 19.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.