Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cd5b28e47c23c0b00fe726978f38cd9e2140692567debdcf4755c8d286a06bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 10c | 610.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.3 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 420.2$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.48 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 12c | 266.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.32 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 225.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 16c | 209.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.39 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 30c | 200$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.62 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 11c | 187.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.37 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 79c | 181.35$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 67c | 166.39$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 163.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 31c | 131.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 28c | 128.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 11c | 127.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.27 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 55c | 124.72$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 123.53$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.46 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 28c | 118.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.96 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 111.7$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 109.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed No | 75c | 101.01$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.77 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 50c | 100.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 84.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked No | 30c | 83.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 65c | 80.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 49c | 69.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…d8cebacked Yes | 50c | 69.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1441…0b51backed Yes | 39c | 60.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ce…90a5backed Yes | 77c | 60.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 56c | 57.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 53c | 56.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 23c | 52.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 23c | 48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 24c | 47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked No | 47c | 42.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 47c | 39.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 32.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed No | 57c | 31.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 75c | 29.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 25.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 80c | 21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 77c | 18.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 18.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 78c | 14.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.