Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d20ae065071fee2dfabf9b3213a4b52a235603160108b8c8dd4a7ea7072a0b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 270.05$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 149$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 63c | 140.31$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.44 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 71c | 139.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.39 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…1423backed Yes | 50c | 136.79$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 133.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 32c | 117.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.66 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 67c | 112.59$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 112.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 36c | 105$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.15 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 91.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd663…6abcbacked Yes | 33c | 85.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 32c | 81.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 80.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 77.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 76.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 69c | 72.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 68c | 65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 21c | 64.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 60.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fef…816bbacked No | 78c | 60.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 32c | 56.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 54.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 23c | 54.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 35c | 53.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 70c | 50.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 78c | 50.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 69c | 48.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 33c | 45.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 68c | 40.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…fa31backed Yes | 28c | 37.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 38c | 35.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 40c | 34.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 67c | 32.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 60c | 30.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 63c | 28.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed No | 65c | 24.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 62c | 22.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 62c | 22.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 20.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 62c | 19.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.