Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1f198a161bb1f8cc5100b8e23637410f363a36ecd99b8bfa34ed9830af0b9fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 52c | 951.74$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.81 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 46c | 879.77$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.5 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 52c | 556.2$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.9 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 44c | 448$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.31 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 54c | 370.9$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 48c | 307.14$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.71 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 39c | 224.36$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.86 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 44c | 209.75$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 59c | 174.07$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 149$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 55c | 143.19$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.46 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 51c | 140.31$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.09 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 57c | 132.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 41c | 130.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 107.12$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 61c | 100.95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 40c | 97.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.07 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 41c | 97.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.57 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 81.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 53c | 78.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 46c | 71.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 44c | 70.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 56c | 69.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 51c | 65.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 65.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 38c | 60.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked No | 50c | 55.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 85 | 80%68 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 47c | 53.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb930…435fbacked No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 56c | 51.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 40c | 50.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 57c | 47.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 39c | 43.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 48c | 43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 66c | 40.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 40c | 39.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 39.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 40c | 39.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 38c | 35.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 39c | 35.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 42c | 34.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 46c | 33.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed No | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 36c | 28.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 46c | 27.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 49c | 26.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 63c | 26.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 53c | 25.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 51c | 25.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c4…898dbacked Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -4.6wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…a381backed No | 44c | 24.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed No | 67c | 24.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 52c | 21.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 55c | 20.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 20.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.