Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d213dc425c03d17030d455b25daf3eb0d7567ac1df362f596b0cd09b6f3b2a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 42c | 7,938$3,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,574.8 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 25c | 2,762$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.74 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 23c | 1,654$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.9 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…5d0cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,649$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,345.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +160.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 17c | 1,561$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.92 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 78c | 1,454$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.01 | 127 | 70.9%90 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…87efbacked Yes | 62c | 810.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.54 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe6…4a1bbacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +10.1wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +330.1%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 27c | 404.8$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.73 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 75c | 356$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.71 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.75 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 19c | 300$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.5 | 207 | 40.1%83 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 56c | 298.04$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.51 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…2aeabacked Yes | 16c | 281.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.25 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3341…d7e4backed Yes | 19c | 268.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +148%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 18c | 235.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Yes | 14c | 184.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.36 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 16c | 178$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 64c | 175.45$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Yes | 18c | 175.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.52 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 17c | 174.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.72 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d91…cdebbacked No | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 46c | 120.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 33c | 80.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 202 | 44.6%90 W · 112 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Yes | 18c | 76.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.26 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 34c | 74.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Yes | 17c | 70.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 370 | 43.8%162 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…53d2backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Yes | 19c | 59.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…f890backed Yes | 22c | 59.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.37 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaedb…91fdbacked Yes | 75c | 59.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef2…d5c5backed Yes | 43c | 46.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed No | 53c | 44.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…56ebbacked Yes | 59c | 39.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed No | 34c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8944…da4bbacked No | 67c | 39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 61c | 36.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Yes | 47c | 36.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed Yes | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 200 | 48%96 W · 104 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | +11.3wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 58c | 28.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed No | 45c | 27.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…d1a7backed No | 55c | 24.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Yes | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 63c | 20.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 69c | 17.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw?this page
- Will Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2026-08-13?No won
- Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-08-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.