Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d34dc47a21574c78ed6bc57f3441616b2431fef56b5a831d4200f6c1ca437f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 3c | 479.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 405.62$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.33 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 10c | 317$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 73c | 272.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed No | 74c | 213.31$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 188.3$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3525…4964backed Yes | 38c | 169.94$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.14 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 49c | 169.51$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.53 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 154.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 22c | 122.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 119.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 25c | 99.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 33c | 94.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.06 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 88.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 72c | 76.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 41c | 76.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 63.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.18 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 59.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e3…6651backed No | 72c | 55.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 76c | 51.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 70c | 45.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 71c | 42.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 77c | 38.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 48c | 28.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 27.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 26.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 25.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 71c | 22.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 22.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 22.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 75c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 68c | 19.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 56c | 19.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7da…5b7bbacked Yes | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 65c | 18.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 77c | 18.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc706…48cfbacked No | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 72c | 15.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad1…e9acbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 75c | 13.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 80c | 12.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.57 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C or higher on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.