Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64baafb05fedd1f5f57ded7f152cd8bf3a0fa691d025672fc62f00221efe74cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed Yes | 1c | 2,101$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed Yes | 4c | 699.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…8d47backed Yes | 3c | 523.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3525…4964backed Yes | 15c | 301.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 190$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 27c | 178.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 99.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes | 17c | 98.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 39c | 93.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 84.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…c055backed Yes | 24c | 79.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 20c | 73.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 70c | 71.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 77c | 66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 34c | 62.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 21c | 61.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 64c | 57.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 65c | 51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 65c | 50.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbe…84d1backed No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 29c | 47.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 29c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 35c | 41.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5d…f085backed Yes | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 71c | 30.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 66c | 29.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 66c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 73c | 27.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 27.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8785…6384backed Yes | 37c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 71c | 25.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 57c | 22.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 21.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 74c | 20.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 19.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 19.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 70c | 17.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C or higher on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.