MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d3631cb18a35dd8c7ff4eecf1888f64c8b8f1a2f16644c9c737dec607912760
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 44c | 2,037$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.32 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…a190backed Over | 46c | 965.33$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.33 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 56c | 879.76$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.68 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354b…4744backed Under | 48c | 861.82$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.8 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 59c | 543.9$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.83 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 53c | 469.82$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.82 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 52c | 410.26$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.93 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 53c | 386.79$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.79 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 249.98$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.49 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 47c | 228.27$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.29 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 55c | 182.64$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.63 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682a…c87dbacked Over | 58c | 173$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.66 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Under | 48c | 166.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 69c | 153$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 52c | 124$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 48c | 102.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 99.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Under | 33c | 90.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 87.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 58c | 85.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 47c | 70.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Over | 55c | 69.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Under | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Over | 58c | 51.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 52c | 49.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…18c6backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2713…43b2backed Over | 53c | 35.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb76…28f3backed Under | 48c | 32.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Under | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x887f…7289backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 55c | 24.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c92…7438backed Over | 53c | 20.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco GiantsToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 14.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 15.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.