MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8fb1b46b13f4eb3fee07fe3a94eed06e4d7c9878da956b3b3529ec9b49b877f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 8,044$3,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,906.71 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 5,555$3,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,388.55 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 1,604$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.47 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 844$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.84 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 706.18$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.83 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a0…7827backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 541.21$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 407.33$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.66 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacca…3fb0backed San Francisco Giants | 3c | 350$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 328.19$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.13 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked San Francisco Giants | 61c | 317$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.37 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 297.54$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.47 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed San Francisco Giants | 50c | 279.71$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.74 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8b…6a9fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 250$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 27c | 183.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 113.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.24 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 95.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 82.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 80.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a21…4aa9backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 71.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 66.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0a…75acbacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 465 | 46%214 W · 251 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked San Francisco Giants | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed San Francisco Giants | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed San Francisco Giants | 32c | 39.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 30.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco GiantsToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 14.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 15.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.