Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Taiyo Yamanaka vs Hikaru Shiraishi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d6502817f5d0b084a5bf4230237a9da6d29b07f4a82720a9e99722f267daf00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Taiyo Yamanakaof Taiyo Yamanaka, Hikaru Shiraishi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 70c | 2,343$1,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,630.26 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 31c | 754.78$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.7 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 178 | 10.7%19 W · 159 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 31c | 408.61$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.94 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 29c | 366$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.84 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 71c | 316.97$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.05 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 31c | 296.3$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.87 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 7c | 289.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1,042 | 36.5%380 W · 662 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 28c | 168.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.52 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…2f1bbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 31c | 149.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.05 | 291 | 48.5%141 W · 150 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 7c | 141.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 29c | 135.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.94 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…56ffbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 37c | 122.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.44 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 28c | 89.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 28c | 85.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.67 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 31c | 70.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 28c | 56.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 63c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 63c | 49.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 214 | 47.2%101 W · 113 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 73c | 49.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07b…b7c9backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 42c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 154 | 56.5%87 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 62c | 40.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bef…5f5dbacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 63c | 36.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 139 | 65.5%91 W · 48 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…2581backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 74c | 18.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 72 | 75%54 W · 18 L | +11.5wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce0…9d0bbacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 78c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 241 | 59.3%143 W · 98 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.