Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Turkey by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d8d3ba4cb11cd4087c0143d7ea5c4a308190dc0a9ec6f3fd13df0cad26dc328
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71e5…50a4backed Yes | 9c | 8,510$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 4,912$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.46 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0302…8fe8backed Yes | 5c | 3,716$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,850$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 5c | 2,029$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.96 | 88 | 27.3%24 W · 64 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 1,770$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.34 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81b4…a888backed Yes | 4c | 1,252$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ab…daccbacked Yes | 8c | 1,229$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 9c | 1,201$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.93 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 7c | 1,025$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.74 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae6…dd45backed Yes | 9c | 927.39$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 3c | 900$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…e194backed Yes | 7c | 558.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 4c | 544.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00fd…a154backed Yes | 7c | 517.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe202…8174backed Yes | 9c | 509.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf5…4e75backed Yes | 9c | 505.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0b…9bb2backed Yes | 8c | 457.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7183…69c9backed Yes | 7c | 414.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08c9…a9ccbacked Yes | 8c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5049…6092backed Yes | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac42…b166backed Yes | 6c | 311.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 8c | 308.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7642…422dbacked Yes | 5c | 297.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x253e…bf81backed Yes | 6c | 263.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 6c | 251.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed Yes | 8c | 250.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb4…d58ebacked Yes | 5c | 242.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…cd68backed Yes | 5c | 209.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 7c | 175$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 143.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Turkey by December 31?this page
- Will Israel strike Turkey by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.