CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: Honvéd (-1.5) vs megoshort (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d9e373e751549e9beba4cbaa78807424188f6cb00d89b6e120611e397c7e6fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Honvédof Honvéd, megoshort
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2526…218ebacked Honvéd | 63c | 4,000$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,479.99 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked Honvéd | 60c | 3,083$1,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,224.55 | 924 | 56.8%525 W · 399 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…e409backed Honvéd | 64c | 2,390$1,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.46 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…1513backed megoshort | 40c | 1,905$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.03 | 443 | 43.3%192 W · 251 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed megoshort | 37c | 1,777$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.12 | 655 | 46.9%307 W · 348 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf1…3018backed megoshort | 37c | 1,425$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.31 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee5f…5508backed megoshort | 40c | 982.53$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…547cbacked megoshort | 37c | 975$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.75 | 244 | 47.1%115 W · 129 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Honvéd | 64c | 800$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 610 | 54.9%335 W · 275 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d3…bab9backed megoshort | 36c | 541$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.76 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7004…a778backed Honvéd | 61c | 503.67$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.47 | 301 | 55.8%168 W · 133 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed megoshort | 37c | 390$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.46 | 835 | 43.6%364 W · 471 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8731…2c12backed megoshort | 41c | 319.51$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd95d…2ab5backed megoshort | 40c | 306.9$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.84 | 325 | 44.3%144 W · 181 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…f2efbacked Honvéd | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d5…54d5backed Honvéd | 62c | 299.99$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…e18fbacked megoshort | 37c | 258.04$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed megoshort | 39c | 230.01$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 557 | 38.4%214 W · 343 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2b…cec3backed megoshort | 38c | 229.72$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.29 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…0747backed megoshort | 40c | 187.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885a…8bfdbacked megoshort | 38c | 178$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ade…fb15backed megoshort | 50c | 176.91$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.46 | 197 | 48.7%96 W · 101 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…99a3backed megoshort | 38c | 171$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 200 | 45.5%91 W · 109 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…387ebacked megoshort | 38c | 147.36$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 291 | 54%157 W · 134 L | +17.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3d…1f52backed megoshort | 39c | 116.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 280 | 52.9%148 W · 132 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f50…e12bbacked megoshort | 36c | 116.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed megoshort | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 965 | 43.5%420 W · 545 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…dd57backed megoshort | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 123 | 40.7%50 W · 73 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c60…01febacked Honvéd | 66c | 46.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 191 | 51.8%99 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d6…e718backed megoshort | 37c | 35.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5149…3336backed megoshort | 40c | 29.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Honvéd | 61c | 26.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…e36bbacked Honvéd | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: Honvéd (-1.5) vs megoshort (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs megoshort (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group AHonvéd won
- Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs megoshort - Map 1 WinnerHonvéd won
- Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs megoshort - Map 2 WinnerHonvéd won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Honvéd (-3.5) vs megoshort (+3.5)megoshort won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.