Tennis · resolved market
Trieste: Franco Roncadelli vs Michele Ribecai
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dbe8b9e7e3bf1d6eb41fd60aabe76048e683a05943c9919df5ccf1493dbbddd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michele Ribecaiof Franco Roncadelli, Michele Ribecai
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Franco Roncadelli | 12c | 6,242$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.38 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Michele Ribecai | 55c | 2,475$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.75 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Franco Roncadelli | 45c | 2,117$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.64 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Michele Ribecai | 80c | 1,132$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.69 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Michele Ribecai | 62c | 999.89$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.75 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Michele Ribecai | 57c | 687.55$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.42 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Franco Roncadelli | 45c | 647.76$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.9 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Michele Ribecai | 74c | 607.17$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.93 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Franco Roncadelli | 42c | 594.51$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.92 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Franco Roncadelli | 31c | 515.15$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.94 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…fb10backed Michele Ribecai | 52c | 448.08$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.08 | 452 | 56.2%254 W · 198 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11ee…e6c6backed Franco Roncadelli | 49c | 404.65$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbab2…9decbacked Franco Roncadelli | 53c | 331.03$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.11 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Michele Ribecai | 60c | 329$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.56 | 1,159 | 69%800 W · 359 L | +56.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc81…e889backed Michele Ribecai | 52c | 309.52$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.57 | 179 | 42.5%76 W · 103 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Franco Roncadelli | 45c | 297.94$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.58 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Franco Roncadelli | 46c | 285.28$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.99 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9af…359cbacked Franco Roncadelli | 54c | 240$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 514 | 57.2%294 W · 220 L | +29.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Franco Roncadelli | 48c | 225$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Michele Ribecai | 73c | 220.79$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.42 | 1,795 | 46.6%837 W · 958 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Michele Ribecai | 54c | 217.44$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.02 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Michele Ribecai | 53c | 215.02$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.06 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Franco Roncadelli | 21c | 214.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a80…d472backed Franco Roncadelli | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,186 | 52.4%622 W · 564 L | +28.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Michele Ribecai | 77c | 207.67$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…819bbacked Michele Ribecai | 52c | 192$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Franco Roncadelli | 42c | 153.47$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.13 | 829 | 58.1%482 W · 347 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Michele Ribecai | 54c | 134.37$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.53 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd74…00a1backed Michele Ribecai | 55c | 132.37$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 496 | 58.1%288 W · 208 L | +32.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Franco Roncadelli | 48c | 128$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec00…4dbebacked Michele Ribecai | 52c | 116.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51e6…622ebacked Franco Roncadelli | 48c | 114.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…6569backed Franco Roncadelli | 46c | 107.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfc…7c97backed Michele Ribecai | 53c | 101.21$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Michele Ribecai | 51c | 100.71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed Michele Ribecai | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 354 | 57.3%203 W · 151 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3131…91cdbacked Franco Roncadelli | 51c | 99.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 318 | 55.7%177 W · 141 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3569…008bbacked Franco Roncadelli | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde2f…ad33backed Franco Roncadelli | 23c | 86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 253 | 36.4%92 W · 161 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Franco Roncadelli | 28c | 81.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Franco Roncadelli | 39c | 79.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7497…18cebacked Franco Roncadelli | 37c | 72.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…1435backed Franco Roncadelli | 37c | 70.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 390 | 35.9%140 W · 250 L | -61.1wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Michele Ribecai | 57c | 67.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 557 | 48.8%272 W · 285 L | +23.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aca…5b87backed Michele Ribecai | 53c | 64.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Franco Roncadelli | 47c | 57.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Franco Roncadelli | 40c | 56.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28be…6dbebacked Franco Roncadelli | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 36.6%86 W · 149 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Franco Roncadelli | 43c | 54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 978 | 52%509 W · 469 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f06…8ebebacked Franco Roncadelli | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed Franco Roncadelli | 23c | 50.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Michele Ribecai | 65c | 50.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 2,049 | 46.8%958 W · 1,091 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…4d9bbacked Franco Roncadelli | 49c | 49.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 574 | 49.1%282 W · 292 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Michele Ribecai | 51c | 48.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Franco Roncadelli | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 222 | 30.6%68 W · 154 L | -25.6wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec0…6367backed Michele Ribecai | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Franco Roncadelli | 45c | 35.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 940 | 58.4%549 W · 391 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1298…97b6backed Michele Ribecai | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Michele Ribecai | 55c | 32.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a92…6b00backed Franco Roncadelli | 37c | 32.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 476 | 51.9%247 W · 229 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6384…3d67backed Michele Ribecai | 62c | 31.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 120 | 61.7%74 W · 46 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…d2debacked Michele Ribecai | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb2…0f00backed Michele Ribecai | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…b2cebacked Michele Ribecai | 60c | 27.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8888…3d5cbacked Michele Ribecai | 56c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 303 | 53.5%162 W · 141 L | +13.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…d0f0backed Franco Roncadelli | 41c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 461 | 55.3%255 W · 206 L | +19.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc19…31c4backed Franco Roncadelli | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 325 | 46.2%150 W · 175 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Franco Roncadelli | 50c | 26.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 2,044 | 53.8%1,100 W · 944 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5911…a84cbacked Michele Ribecai | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Michele Ribecai | 64c | 23.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked Michele Ribecai | 60c | 23.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 586 | 65.5%384 W · 202 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3d…f2ffbacked Franco Roncadelli | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 292 | 37.3%109 W · 183 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1039…2914backed Michele Ribecai | 53c | 20.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 287 | 64.1%184 W · 103 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Franco Roncadelli | 51c | 20.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 79 | 64.6%51 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…c927backed Michele Ribecai | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Michele Ribecai | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 990 | 56%554 W · 436 L | +32.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Michele Ribecai | 69c | 17.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 2,085 | 44.5%928 W · 1,157 L | -51.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Michele Ribecai | 69c | 15.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.